U.S. Navy Blockade Severely Impacts Iranian Oil Exports, Forcing Crude to Float in Storage
Shipping data shows that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports has drastically reduced Iranian oil exports, with increasing amounts of crude oil piling up on tankers as Iran’s onshore storage facilities reach capacity. Analysts say it is almost impossible to measure how much crude Iran has delivered to customers, as some vessels have turned off tracking systems and the U.S. military continues to intercept Iranian tankers.
Oil analytics firm Vortexa said only a small number of vessels carrying Iranian crude left the Gulf of Oman between April 13 and 25. This was more than 80% lower than the same period in March, when Iran exported 23.4 million barrels of crude oil, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group.
Some vessels leaving Iranian ports, as well as sanctioned container ships and Iranian tankers operating in Asian waters, have been intercepted by the United States. “At this stage, we estimate around 4 million barrels of Iranian crude have successfully exited the Gulf of Oman. We are currently unable to confirm whether these vessels have been intercepted subsequently,” Vortexa said in an email to Reuters.
Benchmark Brent crude oil futures have risen by about $50 a barrel since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, pushing up prices for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. The International Energy Agency called it the largest disruption to global oil supplies.
No tankers have left the Gulf since the blockade
Kpler analysts said they have not observed any Iranian crude tankers leaving the Gulf of Oman since the blockade began. U.S. Central Command said on Wednesday (April 29) that its blockade was cutting off the Iranian regime’s urgently needed oil export revenue. “Currently, there are 41 tankers carrying 69 million barrels of oil that the Iranian regime cannot sell.”
On Wednesday, the Iranian rial fell to a record low against the dollar, highlighting the financial difficulties facing the oil-dependent economy. Maritime intelligence company TankerTrackers said that despite the pressure, Iran is still loading crude oil at its main export hub on Kharg Island. Satellite imagery shows at least 10 tankers docked near Iran’s Chabahar port, located in the Gulf of Oman.
Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball said Iran may be forced to begin cutting production within a week or two due to lack of storage space. Iran’s onshore storage facilities are about 60% full, with inventories exceeding 50 million barrels, out of a total capacity of 86 million barrels, according to Kpler. Consulting firm FGE NextantECA estimated on April 15 that capacity constraints could force Iran to begin cutting production by mid-June.