Kalshi Prediction Platform: Musk's Lawsuit Against OpenAI Has a Low Probability of Success
Traders on the prediction trading platform Kalshi indicate that the probability of Elon Musk winning his lawsuit against OpenAI is only about 36%, the lowest expectation since the trial began in Oakland, California a week ago. The billionaire sued OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman in 2024, alleging they violated agreements to maintain the company's non-profit status.
On Thursday, OpenAI's counsel cross-examined Musk regarding the cap on returns from Microsoft's investment in OpenAI, whether Musk participated in negotiations on the company's structure, and whether he was aware of OpenAI's recent actions as a non-profit organization. Musk responded that he was not aware of OpenAI's internal affairs.
Last week, the market predicted Musk's probability of winning was as high as nearly 60%, but it plummeted to around 50% by Friday afternoon.
Court documents disclosed on Sunday showed that Musk texted Brockman days before the trial began, expressing an intention to settle.
Musk donated approximately $38 million to the AI company, and he claims the funds were improperly used for unauthorized commercial purposes.
Musk and Altman were once close friends, and they co-founded OpenAI in 2015 with the initial intention of benefiting all of humanity, unconstrained by the need for profit.
OpenAI remains a non-profit entity controlling its for-profit business after completing a capital restructuring in October of last year. Musk left the company's board of directors in 2018, after which OpenAI established a for-profit subsidiary.